How counterfeiting is changing for consumer brands

Tariffs moved manufacturing, and counterfeiters moved with it

U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have pushed a significant share of consumer product manufacturing into other parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Northern Vietnam in particular has seen a manufacturing boom. Companies there compete aggressively for skilled labor, bidding up wages for the most experienced workers and reshaping the region's economy.

Mexico has gone through a similar transformation. Since the 2018–19 U.S.-China tariff hikes, Mexico has become the largest supplier of U.S. imports, passing China and now making up about 16% of total imports.

Counterfeit production follows the same supply chains as legitimate manufacturing. As factories, materials, and skilled labor spread into new regions, so does the ability to produce convincing copies of branded products.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, FEDS Notes, "Mexico in U.S. Supply Chains: Lessons from 2018‑19 Tariffs" (June 2026)

The rise of the "near‑genuine" replica

The obvious knockoff that looks nothing like the original is giving way to something harder to spot. Counterfeiters now invest in higher-quality replicas designed to look as close to the real product as possible.

These products usually aren't priced at half off. They're typically priced at around 70% of MSRP: low enough to win a price-conscious shopper, but close enough to seem believable. Brand owners now compete against products that look like their own and use their trademarks, often in markets and channels where they never had to compete before.

New regions, new enforcement fronts

Chinese wholesalers remain one of the most important sources of counterfeit goods, and enforcement there is still essential. But counterfeit activity is growing in regions that have historically received less attention:

• Indonesia and other emerging Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs
• Africa, as both a production and distribution market
• Turkey, which sits at the crossroads of manufacturing and shipping routes into Europe
• Brazil, which is experiencing its own manufacturing boom in the Western Hemisphere

Many of these markets have not traditionally prioritized IP enforcement. Brand protection programs that focus only on China now leave major gaps, and effective enforcement increasingly means monitoring and acting across a much wider map.

Counterfeits are already in the U.S.

One of the old tells of a counterfeit order was the wait: weeks of international shipping from an overseas seller. Modern counterfeiting operations have largely eliminated that signal by warehousing inventory inside the U.S. and shipping directly to consumers on timelines that match legitimate retailers.

For shoppers, this makes a fake listing nearly indistinguishable from a real one. For brands, it means domestic fulfillment is no longer a sign that a seller is legitimate.

Temu and the ultra‑low‑price marketplace

Temu, owned by PDD Holdings, is now the second most visited online marketplace in the United States, behind only Amazon, according to Similarweb monthly traffic data. The platform is positioned around unbranded, generic goods. In practice, brands frequently find knockoffs, lookalikes, and design-infringing versions of their products listed there.

This hurts consumer brands in two ways. Shoppers who buy a lookalike and get a poor-quality product may lose confidence in the original brand. And even when shoppers don't buy, the prices advertised on these platforms reset expectations about what the product should cost, making the legitimate price look inflated.

Price pressure is reaching Amazon

The effects of ultra‑low‑price platforms don't stay on those platforms. Amazon increasingly weighs competitive prices from sites like Temu and Shein, which pressures brands to lower their own prices or risk losing the Buy Box, sometimes to the very sellers offering fakes.

At the same time, brands are spending more on advertising just to maintain visibility against lookalike listings. The result is a squeeze on margins from both sides: lower prices and higher acquisition costs.

What this means for consumer brands

• Monitor beyond the usual channels. Counterfeits now originate from, and are sold into, a much wider range of countries and platforms.
• Look for lookalikes, not just exact copies. Design infringement and near‑genuine replicas require monitoring for visual similarity, not only trademark use.
• Secure IP in the markets that matter. Registrations in regions like Mexico, Turkey, and Brazil make enforcement possible where it wasn't before.
• Treat pricing anomalies as a signal. Listings priced around 70% of MSRP deserve a closer look than obvious bargain-bin fakes.
• Don't assume domestic shipping means legitimate. U.S.-based fulfillment is now a common counterfeiting tactic.